Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.
Just when it appeared as if the government of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej was down and out, it has retaken the offensive and thereby upped the ante in Thailand's winner-takes-all political drama.
Key rulings from the judiciary last week dimmed the government's longevity. The recent spate of crucial rulings began with the Constitution Court 's 8:1 landmark verdict against the Samak cabinet's resolution to endorse the joint communique supporting Cambodia's unilateral registration of Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site.
The overwhelming ruling indicated that the joint communique between Thailand and Cambodia was under the jurisdiction of Article 190 of the Constitution, which required parliamentary approval.
It was tantamount to a conviction against the government for having violated the charter. Many saw the government's "unconstitutional" enactment as sufficient grounds for resignation to show responsibility.
Another ruling on the same day was anticipated. The Election Commission's earlier "red card" against Yongyuth Tiyapairat, an executive of the ruling People Power party, for election fraud in the Dec 23 elections was upheld by the Supreme Court's division for crimes involving political office holders.
This decision puts in motion the party dissolution case against the PPP through the Office of the Attorney-General to the Constitution Court, a process of six months or less.
The spectre of PPP's disbandment, much like the destruction of its forerunner Thai Rak Thai party, will thus grow in likelihood in the weeks ahead.
Another ruling the next day against a cabinet minister for failing to fully disclose his wife's assets rocked government stability further.
By Friday, when former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama was compelled to tender his resignation, it looked as if the Samak government was collapsing amidst the court rulings, the anti-government street protests by the People's Alliance for Democracy, and rising cost of living and worsening macroeconomic conditions.
Even a major cabinet reshuffle appeared too little, too late.
But then Mr Samak and his PPP lieutenants decided to go for broke, budging not an inch but instead turning the crisis into opportunity.
When he came out of his corner in his weekly Sunday talk show, Mr Samak threw a combination of punches to confront the government's coalition of opponents. He had something for everyone who has undermined the government and is intent on its downfall.
After making an earlier tactical retreat on constitutional amendments, the prime minister has reiterated the government's intention to restart the amendments process as soon as parliament reconvenes.
He openly criticised the judiciary, accused it of overstepping its boundaries over the executive and legislative branches, and threatened to set new parameters around the role of the judges through constitutional amendments.
Mr Samak further challenged the courts by exposing a potential "red card" for a Democrat party executive and MP in Ubon Ratchathani province.
If the EC fails to confirm its provincial branch's "red card" finding, or if the Constitution Court rules in favour of the Democrat executive in question, charges of discrimination and conspiracy will fly from PPP headquarters.
By last Tuesday, when the cabinet held its weekly meeting, the government's offensive was in full bloom. A new, six-month relief package of tax cuts and utilities and fuel subsidies to the tune of 47 billion baht was announced to offset higher living costs, with the emphasis on low-income earners.
Having been distracted and obstructed by its opponents in recent weeks, the PPP-led government has returned to its populist roots. The majority of the electorate is the PPP's greatest asset.
Mr Samak and the ruling party are now poised to fight its upcoming battles with its support bases firmly in tow.
The conspicuous return to its tried and tested populist agenda is a win-win outcome. Even if the government is aborted and new elections are due, relief measures for the poor and downtrodden will translate into votes.
Yet the Samak government is still deep in the woods despite its defiant posture, economic stimulus to its supporters, and challenges to its opponents.
A long list of court rulings is in the offing, including charges against Mr Samak himself and a number of his cabinet members.
The forthcoming cabinet reshuffle can buy him time if he brings in respected outsiders to shore up macroeconomic management. If they are prominent enough, these outsiders will make difficult targets for the PAD and other anti-government groups.
Mr Samak also has to remove or relocate cabinet liabilities such as Interior Minister Chalerm Yubamrung.
A complete revamp of the cabinet may enable the Samak government to hobble along for a few months until the PPP dissolution verdict arrives.
Political temperatures will rise inexorably, and Thailand will become increasingly ungovernable, in the interim.
Many hold out the hope that the judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court, Constitution Court and Administrative Court, can resolve the political crisis through its rulings. Such may be the case if the decisions are seen as fair across the board and can set political direction.
The danger, however, is that the crisis will persist and transcend beyond the judicial decisions, politicising and compromising the courts.
The cost of dragging the judiciary into Thai politics would then not be worth it.
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